{"stats":{"wins":8,"losses":14,"win_rate":36,"streak":"L2","total":22,"open":0,"oracle_wins":5,"oracle_losses":7,"oracle_open":0},"calls":[{"id":1,"asset":"ETH","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":2169.97,"target_price":null,"timeframe":"24h","note":"Liquidity cascade off leverage longs","made_at":"2026-03-20 12:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","exit_price":2100.0,"resolved_at":"2026-03-22 12:00 UTC","won":true,"call_type":"oracle","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","post_mortem":"ETH DOWN call won because a liquidity cascade unwinding leverage longs created the predicted downside momentum, with the exit at $2,100 capturing the move before the initial price target was tested.","tx_hash":"4c8feb20acac67de5afca345fa3d6b2a6845f6de6972878905dc6cade019ad25","resolve_tx_hash":"b27d0c50a9a8d73b42931420173b0c55ea0e64e3e99e0d101d841c44a1d90102"},{"id":2,"asset":"NVDA","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":175.0,"target_price":null,"timeframe":"Friday close","note":"Goldman blunt message after the drop","made_at":"2026-03-23 21:08 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","exit_price":167.52000427246094,"resolved_at":"2026-03-28 23:20 UTC","won":true,"call_type":"oracle","resolution_price_source":"yfinance","post_mortem":"NVDA DOWN call won because Goldman Sachs issued a notably bearish statement that catalyzed the selloff to $167.52, validating the directional thesis despite uncertain market conditions at call time.","tx_hash":"80a303fe2fa09c7cd4947e4c3699229afb09dba517948641d1e6a2a0dac3a3af","resolve_tx_hash":"80f1d63b859cc731282e5a780de49bb7dc685cc619301e293fea5c0262fb3779"},{"id":3,"asset":"BTC","direction":"UP","entry_price":70500.0,"target_price":74200.0,"timeframe":"Friday close","note":"BTC drops under $69K while actually sitting at $70,500, up 3.8%","made_at":"2026-03-24 13:07 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","exit_price":66323,"resolved_at":"2026-03-28 23:20 UTC","won":false,"call_type":"oracle","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","post_mortem":"BTC UP call lost because the call was made at a local top ($70,500) just before a sharp reversal that broke below the entry level, turning a short-term bullish setup into a liquidation trap as momentum shifted to the downside.","tx_hash":"fb9e7253915c66dfafb3dc852bfd45ef33e382b563ae028283d7095909052598","resolve_tx_hash":"26509acfd0d5cc20d7946915ed3fc5a7fd44694ede9e4158ab1af2154411f434"},{"id":4,"asset":"BTC","direction":"UP","entry_price":68667.9,"target_price":72101.0,"timeframe":"48h","note":"Auto-call from 11-signal engine. DIRECTION: UP — 6/8 signals bullish. BTC likely continues higher.","made_at":"2026-04-01 16:14 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","exit_price":66803,"resolved_at":"2026-04-03 17:20 UTC","won":false,"call_type":"oracle","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","post_mortem":"BTC UP call lost because the 6/8 bullish signal consensus failed to account for a sharp liquidation cascade or macro headwind that reversed momentum within the 48h window, likely triggered by either overlevered long positioning at resistance or an unexpected negative catalyst that the signal engine didn't weight appropriately.","tx_hash":"d988afd9cd073101267b2a61881b21bec9cc26328f8297d9faad37e3869c52ed","resolve_tx_hash":"81b45ef7a6259403753c433ea39f3f36d484c99ab2946cd7e92ed5009762d798"},{"id":18,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"BTC","direction":"UP","entry_price":69502.0,"target_price":72800.0,"timeframe":"48h","note":"Auto-call posted to X. Oracle call: BTC UP from $69,502 to $72,800 by 48h.","made_at":"2026-04-06 11:26 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","won":true,"exit_price":71740,"resolved_at":"2026-04-08 17:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{},"edge_score":0.0,"time_quality":"","post_mortem":"BTC UP call won because the call captured the early stages of a relief rally following oversold conditions, with Bitcoin finding support and momentum traders initiating long positions within the 48-hour window.","tx_hash":"7f0ad9532f6b9f36e26dbad67b01c76a040ec4ddc149ec973ec855c44b6aad31","resolve_tx_hash":"63a4c529f4cf6b0cbb93da261456d662786b74e6c94e1a1937f6e736b2fef300"},{"id":22,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"BTC","direction":"UP","entry_price":74403.0,"target_price":77800.0,"timeframe":"48h","note":"Oracle call posted via daily read. BTC UP from $74,403 to $77,800 by 48h. X: https://x.com/octodamusai/status/2044037604904186008","made_at":"2026-04-14 13:07 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":74058,"resolved_at":"2026-04-16 17:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{},"edge_score":0.0,"time_quality":"","post_mortem":"BTC UP call lost because the entry signal was generated during a daily timeframe analysis that failed to account for intraday rejection at $74,403, causing the position to be stopped out before the 48-hour target could materialize.","tx_hash":"2c6d6a325bf0a90a3fe0cd4ea65def22520ba482f96d2bc9e85c37ba28bf2715","resolve_tx_hash":"a453cc0f1fa569d99ccdc688e370d64c443bbc199f04b578a6adcf3a6bf0e90e"},{"id":23,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"ETH","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":2335.0,"target_price":2210.0,"timeframe":"48h","note":"$ETH longs paying 0.41% on Binance while price sits at $2,334. CME ETH open interest up 8.3% in 24h — institutions addin","made_at":"2026-04-15 12:11 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":2444.81,"resolved_at":"2026-04-17 16:03 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{},"edge_score":0.0,"time_quality":"","post_mortem":"ETH DOWN call lost because institutional accumulation (CME OI +8.3%) conflicted with the bearish setup, and the tight 0.41% funding rate on Binance longs indicated insufficient leverage positioning to sustain a breakdown below $2,335.","tx_hash":"a792a6296133e199a7150ecbcaa708e14b4c09951a7c51bec8c82b737e46612d","resolve_tx_hash":"f21aa60236ee166ffd6e797811455526eaee019b1196fbf3917f92da71b8132a"},{"id":24,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"SOL","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":83.77,"target_price":80.5,"timeframe":"48h","note":"SOL funding at -0.96% on Bybit. Shorts are paying longs to hold a position that's already down 2.4% today.\n\n73% of Binan","made_at":"2026-04-15 12:59 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":89.99,"resolved_at":"2026-04-17 16:03 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{},"edge_score":0.0,"time_quality":"","post_mortem":"SOL DOWN call lost because the call was made during extreme negative funding (-0.96%) that typically signals capitulation rather than continuation, yet SOL reversed upward 12% inbound to your exit at $89.99, indicating the shorts had already been squeezed out before your signal registered the actual bottom.","tx_hash":"394687b7896122b414d71ffb3a936c57a6ba65bf4086946a4b0fb8ccb67cc6ed","resolve_tx_hash":"5ab07362a75ad6050ac40c5e423c6b86484702ff802d9ce22ba4a5453c19c702"},{"id":25,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"ETH","direction":"UP","entry_price":2351.0,"target_price":2468.0,"timeframe":"48h","note":"Daily read 7pm. Funding deeply negative across 6 exchanges -- shorts paying to stay short. CME ETH OI +10.9% 24h. Short squeeze loading. X post.","made_at":"2026-04-15 19:01 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","won":true,"exit_price":2432.60009765625,"resolved_at":"2026-04-17 20:23 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{},"edge_score":0.0,"time_quality":"","post_mortem":"ETH UP call won because deeply negative funding rates across major exchanges created a short squeeze setup that reliably preceded the 5% move within the 48h window, compounded by CME OI expansion signaling institutional accumulation.","tx_hash":"04f8067c983235eb4accee115c7bab9ead56c824266d652a119464530ba725d3","resolve_tx_hash":"0d54ee07a1b6c325827509eb3a84e477260f78151ba607c322f60afea5be95d9"},{"id":26,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"BTC","direction":"UP","entry_price":74779.0,"target_price":77200.0,"timeframe":"48h","note":"Here's what the data is actually saying this morning:\n\nHedge funds are net short 8,427 BTC contracts on CME. Asset manag","made_at":"2026-04-17 02:01 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","won":true,"exit_price":75569.0,"resolved_at":"2026-04-19 05:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{},"edge_score":0.0,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"asset":"BTC","price":74779.0,"fear_greed":21,"fear_greed_label":"Extreme Fear","change_24h_pct":0.09,"captured_at":"2026-04-17 02:01 UTC"},"post_mortem":"BTC UP encountered headwinds from macro deterioration: Fear & Greed moved from extreme fear (21) to fear (27)—a condition where the 1W/0L pattern suggested edge—but the macro backdrop shifted to RISK-ON (score=4), which typically pressures BTC in the near term despite the setup. The 2.14% 24h decline at resolution directly contradicted the extreme fear capitulation signal that had historically favored directional long calls, breaking the pattern.","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"BTC","price":75569.0,"fear_greed":27,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":-2.14,"macro_signal":"RISK-ON","macro_score":4,"captured_at":"2026-04-19 05:20 UTC"},"tx_hash":"5fa5aa26eb13fea72b1f1db3bb736bbd0532ca23eaa72354fce88d81e670b5a0","resolve_tx_hash":"093412c9a5be062bd2ae03e24b74b9c2e8bf84326fb41fda77795e91a80eedf1"},{"id":27,"call_type":"range_scout","asset":"BTC","direction":"UP","entry_price":80198.8,"target_price":80840.39,"timeframe":"4h","note":"Range Scout: 4/1 mini-signals. RSI=65, TV=bull, Funding=0.0000, TakerBuy=51%, L/S ratio=37% long, F&G=40","made_at":"2026-05-04 15:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":79891.0,"resolved_at":"2026-05-04 23:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"rsi_1h":65.3,"bb_width":3.5,"funding_rate":0.0,"cg_funding_avg":-0.6883,"long_pct":36.9,"taker_buy_pct":51.0,"tv_vote":1,"tv_agree":true,"fng":40,"chg_24h":2.1,"s1_rsi":"BEAR","s2_tv":"BULL","s3_funding":"BULL","s4_taker":"NEUTRAL","s5_ls":"BULL","s6_fng_ctx":"BULL"},"edge_score":0.5,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":80198.8,"chg_24h":2.1,"fng":40},"post_mortem":"**BTC UP call failed as Fear & Greed collapsed from a bullish 65 RSI setup to 40 (Fear) at resolution, inverting sentiment while macro remained neutral and unable to provide directional support.** The taker buy ratio of 51% was marginal for conviction, and with funding flat at 0.0000, there was insufficient leverage conviction to sustain the move—the Range Scout's 4/1 signal ratio couldn't overcome the sentiment shift. This loss aligns with the 3L pattern in your 2W/3L BTC UP record, indicating this setup's historical fragility above 60 RSI without macro tailwinds.","tx_hash":"006b29ef73218d05720609ef7de94d5f5a1ee1c0f14c69e7f063278477357525","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"BTC","price":79891.0,"fear_greed":40,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":1.14,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-04 23:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"d1e503698e20cd4f2e492c297d5576db36c0d77718f2302b3f369916c1df2868"},{"id":30,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"ETH","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":2219.51,"target_price":2134.14,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 74.2% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.224%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=43. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-15 20:47 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","won":true,"exit_price":2187.96,"resolved_at":"2026-05-17 21:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":74.2,"short_pct":25.8,"avg_funding_8h":0.002243146101044325,"fng":43,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":2219.51,"fng":43},"post_mortem":"**ETH DOWN call won** because funding rates (+0.224%/8h) and the extreme long positioning (74.2% L/S ratio) at call created a pain trade setup that resolved downward—the crowded long side capitulated into the 48h window. Fear & Greed compressed from 43 to 27, confirming sentiment shift toward capitulation, which aligned with the macro RISK-ON environment (score=2) that typically triggers liquidation cascades in overbought conditions rather than protecting longs.","tx_hash":"dc8d6a9fbbd2fd88c5e99e52e423e1778980454bdafa02db27af911c71a754e1","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"ETH","price":2187.96,"fear_greed":27,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":0.31,"macro_signal":"RISK-ON","macro_score":2,"captured_at":"2026-05-17 21:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"0cd18ecd4509d0957ed0653bef4f0880607fa4c865966b3d23c83724d5970380"},{"id":31,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"SOL","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":89.14,"target_price":85.71,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 71.8% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.224%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=43. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-15 20:47 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","won":true,"exit_price":86.65,"resolved_at":"2026-05-17 21:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":71.79,"short_pct":28.2,"avg_funding_8h":0.00224283800580623,"fng":43,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":89.14,"fng":43},"post_mortem":"**SOL DOWN call won despite macro shifting risk-on** because the extreme long positioning (71.8% L/S ratio with +0.224% funding) created a structural pain trade that overwhelmed the macro improvement—the crowd's one-sided leverage was the actual tradeable edge, not directional conviction. Fear & Greed compressed from 43→27 into resolution, confirming the liquidation cascade mechanics overrode sentiment recovery, and this represents the first resolved SOL DOWN setup so pattern validation is minimal.","tx_hash":"e7700ac33cda9afb72aa6f42d63f16b30628934c98d1e2b9cd4800451d142590","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"SOL","price":86.65,"fear_greed":27,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":0.04,"macro_signal":"RISK-ON","macro_score":2,"captured_at":"2026-05-17 21:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"e5446d078e1b479acc4ccb64f5ae29f1753012f3f7b04486e9a3aaab5eaa57ac"},{"id":32,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"ETH","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":2118.15,"target_price":2036.68,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 75.2% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.336%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=28. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-18 04:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":2111.76,"resolved_at":"2026-05-20 04:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":75.23,"short_pct":24.8,"avg_funding_8h":0.0033579060705479983,"fng":28,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":2118.15,"fng":28},"post_mortem":"**ETH DOWN call failed because funding remained elevated (+0.336%/8h) and macro stayed neutral rather than shifting bearish**, allowing the crowded short positioning to become a pain trade that squeezed against the call direction. The Fear & Greed remained flat (28→27), providing no macro confirmation for downside, while the 1W/1L historical pattern showed this wasn't an edge setup—execution at $2,111.76 near the call entry ($2,118.15) indicates the move simply didn't materialize before stop.","tx_hash":"0281c1a620f98ac8336c4243770719e8868d5df673398c047f3c82696af39936","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"ETH","price":2111.76,"fear_greed":27,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":-0.94,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-20 04:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"be9754a3ffb095299c5d071ee6a6ba1e2dfe78dadcc2ea8c102836d1823370e6"},{"id":33,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"SOL","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":84.87,"target_price":81.61,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 74.8% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.347%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=28. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-18 04:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":84.1,"resolved_at":"2026-05-20 04:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":74.79,"short_pct":25.2,"avg_funding_8h":0.0034706119501776316,"fng":28,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":84.87,"fng":28},"post_mortem":"**SOL DOWN call failed because funding remained elevated (+0.347%/8h) and Fear & Greed stayed artificially suppressed (28→27) despite the crowded short setup, preventing the predicted pain trade liquidation.** The neutral macro environment lacked the catalyst needed to break the long-dominated L/S ratio (74.8%), allowing price to consolidate above target rather than cascade through $81.61. This contradicts the historical pattern suggesting DOWN calls should capitalize on extreme positioning—instead, the funding mechanism kept longs anchored and prevented the predicted flush.","tx_hash":"b0c248570fc55fd2fc9a6dada70cf896c53d333b9d06a3fa0a73a75804443c4c","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"SOL","price":84.1,"fear_greed":27,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":-1.21,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-20 04:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"2eac5927930b395e973f2ca586900a6ea29ec53bcf05d32266bade56dca4ef14"},{"id":34,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"ETH","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":2127.05,"target_price":2045.24,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 71.8% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.415%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=27. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-20 10:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":2119.9,"resolved_at":"2026-05-22 10:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":71.83,"short_pct":28.2,"avg_funding_8h":0.004151887185411268,"fng":27,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":2127.05,"fng":27},"post_mortem":"# ETH DOWN Call Loss Analysis\n\n**The call failed because funding remained elevated (+0.415%/8h) and macro stayed neutral rather than turning bearish, preventing the predicted liquidation cascade despite fear gauge holding steady at 28.** The crowded long positioning (71.8% L/S ratio) that should have triggered a pain trade liquidation instead absorbed selling pressure, with price only sliding to $2,119.90 versus the $2,045.24 target—a miss of ~$75. This matches the historical 1W/1L pattern, suggesting ETH DOWN calls require macro deterioration or spike funding to execute; neutral macro with sustained long funding is insufficient to break the support structure.","tx_hash":"fc05b4afb4ebccc81fc695f63d48d50cada138347afc85b815b2a687ae7bebef","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"ETH","price":2119.9,"fear_greed":28,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":-0.31,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-22 10:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"29b5400e82d363b66a062968e699c6963b5c86ac4e84f84caf9d88d5f936df61"},{"id":35,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"SOL","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":84.84,"target_price":81.58,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 76.4% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.415%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=27. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-20 10:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":86.91,"resolved_at":"2026-05-22 10:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":76.41,"short_pct":23.6,"avg_funding_8h":0.004151887185411268,"fng":27,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":84.84,"fng":27},"post_mortem":"SOL DOWN failed because funding rates (+0.415%/8h) and extreme long positioning (76.4%) created a classic pain trade setup that resolved upward instead—the crowded short thesis inverted. Conditions deteriorated from call to resolution as macro remained neutral (no macro catalyst to drive the predicted downside) while F&G stayed suppressed at 28, removing the fear-driven selling pressure needed to validate the DOWN call. This loss is consistent with the 0W/1L pattern: directional calls against heavily skewed funding and positioning require macro confirmation or F&G compression that didn't materialize here.","tx_hash":"753e521561c76d5e6914feb92ed02586df9e008a566cdc62e8a50722889db644","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"SOL","price":86.91,"fear_greed":28,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":0.42,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-22 10:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"4955730ed2d0d463477f52b8bc0a7c6f0dcf0448e2568484163faeb912a2d2f3"},{"id":36,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"ETH","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":2024.71,"target_price":1946.84,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 75.8% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.248%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=28. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-23 10:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":2118.22,"resolved_at":"2026-05-25 10:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":75.85,"short_pct":24.2,"avg_funding_8h":0.0024821173149491243,"fng":28,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":2024.71,"fng":28},"post_mortem":"**ETH DOWN call failed because macro shifted from NEUTRAL to supporting upside while funding remained elevated at +0.248%/8h**, creating a pain trade that liquidated the crowded short position despite Fear&Greed dropping to 30—the exact scenario the call note flagged. This outcome contradicts the 1W/1L pattern (50% success rate) and suggests macro conditions changing between call and resolution were the decisive factor, not sentiment alone.","tx_hash":"8b6a1ad9ad115515c405eb09caeeb87e559d7f62f42b0d82e17a7342d31f8fe3","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"ETH","price":2118.22,"fear_greed":30,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":-0.01,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-25 10:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"0fe85a0fdfcae012206866e35d5c7d4e9ba7e94f0c22be98372d2d1721e65f4e"},{"id":37,"call_type":"crowd_fade","asset":"SOL","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":81.92,"target_price":78.77,"timeframe":"48h","note":"L/S ratio 77.3% long -- crowd packed one side. Funding +0.244%/8h confirms longs paying. F&G=28. Pain trade: DOWN.","made_at":"2026-05-23 10:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":85.91999816894531,"resolved_at":"2026-05-25 10:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"long_pct":77.32,"short_pct":22.7,"avg_funding_8h":0.002437366750089473,"fng":28,"conviction":2},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":81.92,"fng":28},"post_mortem":"**SOL DOWN call failed because funding rates (+0.244%/8h) and extreme long positioning (77.3% L/S ratio) created a pain trade setup that executed upward rather than downward, contradicting the directional thesis.** Macro remained neutral and F&G stayed in fear territory (28→30), so the macro/sentiment backdrop didn't shift—the move was purely a liquidation cascade of over-leveraged longs that trapped the short-biased call. This loss is consistent with the 0W/1L SOL DOWN pattern, indicating directional calls against crowded positions require tighter entry validation when funding remains positive.","tx_hash":"8584e2e3f38438fb59697846d84d469cf37eba6dbe4eeaf1f44560c17160027c","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"SOL","price":85.91999816894531,"fear_greed":30,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":0,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-25 10:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"94d060d85e6e02cf866d189bcdf4315dadf521cbb0e6e7637bbf1ee15d08a564"},{"id":38,"call_type":"range_scout","asset":"ETH","direction":"DOWN","entry_price":2106.72,"target_price":2075.12,"timeframe":"6h","note":"Range Scout: 1/5 mini-signals. RSI=66, TV=bear, Funding=0.0000, TakerBuy=36%, L/S ratio=68% long, F&G=30","made_at":"2026-05-25 21:00 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"WIN","won":true,"exit_price":2084.42,"resolved_at":"2026-05-26 03:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":"CoinGecko spot","signals":{"rsi_1h":65.6,"bb_width":5.9,"funding_rate":1e-06,"cg_funding_avg":0.2392,"long_pct":67.8,"taker_buy_pct":36.0,"tv_vote":-1,"tv_agree":true,"fng":30,"chg_24h":0.45,"s1_rsi":"BEAR","s2_tv":"BEAR","s3_funding":"BEAR","s4_taker":"BEAR","s5_ls":"BEAR","s6_fng_ctx":"BULL"},"edge_score":-0.667,"time_quality":"","market_snapshot":{"price":2106.72,"chg_24h":0.45,"fng":30},"post_mortem":"The ETH DOWN call succeeded despite weak setup conditions—only 1/5 mini-signals and RSI=66 (overbought but not extreme)—because macro remained NEUTRAL and Fear & Greed actually shifted from 30 to 34, maintaining the bearish sentiment required for downside. The 0.0000 funding rate provided no tailwind for longs, and the 68% L/S ratio showed aggressive positioning that typically corrects, validating the directional bias even though the call operated on minimal technical confluence.","tx_hash":"e5d9ab5ace21a9a4c2d4f19e17e508e385b29b2b64554b662c59f0b7ac48d40d","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"ETH","price":2084.42,"fear_greed":34,"fear_greed_label":"Fear","change_24h_pct":-0.45,"macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-05-26 03:20 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"64b8cd1da1389b36c79bafb652df03ba0a9bffdc6c9727b5634bee0202978be6"},{"id":39,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"NVDA","direction":"UP","entry_price":205.10000610351562,"target_price":215.36,"timeframe":"5d","note":"Stock oracle. 6B/0Br/8. edge=+0.75. tq=offhours. [REOPENED 2026-06-07: autoresolve fired on weekend with stale price; fixed _is_expired to handle 5d, added market-hours gate]","made_at":"2026-06-05 23:03 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":201.32000732421875,"resolved_at":"2026-06-11 14:20 UTC","resolution_price_source":null,"signals":{},"edge_score":0.75,"time_quality":"offhours","market_snapshot":{"asset":"NVDA","price":205.10000610351562,"fear_greed":12,"fear_greed_label":"Extreme Fear","macro_signal":"RISK-ON","macro_score":2,"captured_at":"2026-06-05 23:03 UTC"},"post_mortem":"NVDA UP failed despite a +0.75 edge because the call was made into **Extreme Fear (F&G=12) with RISK-ON macro (score=2)**, a combination that has historically shown 0W/1L—meaning this setup has never worked. The macro regime shifted to NEUTRAL by resolution, removing the risk-appetite tailwind that was supposed to support the move, while Fear remained elevated, leaving the stock vulnerable to the $201.32 exit below entry. The 5-day timeframe proved too tight for mean reversion in a de-risking environment.","tx_hash":"81a754e87ad80984d5110c3322425eab8167270155e137cc2c8a748730ad57dd","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"NVDA","price":201.32000732421875,"fear_greed":12,"fear_greed_label":"Extreme Fear","macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":0,"captured_at":"2026-06-11 14:20 UTC"},"_bad_resolve_tx":"9f2837092e0a42c68319190d2c01b2e261f2995eecd32f6d07322ebcb7d2901d"},{"id":40,"call_type":"oracle","asset":"AAPL","direction":"UP","entry_price":294.29998779296875,"target_price":309.01,"timeframe":"5d","note":"Stock oracle. 6B/0Br/8. edge=+0.75. tq=offhours.","made_at":"2026-06-23 23:02 UTC","resolved":true,"outcome":"LOSS","won":false,"exit_price":283.625,"resolved_at":"2026-06-29 14:00 UTC","resolution_price_source":"yfinance","signals":{},"edge_score":0.75,"time_quality":"offhours","market_snapshot":{"asset":"AAPL","price":294.29998779296875,"fear_greed":23,"fear_greed_label":"Extreme Fear","macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":1,"captured_at":"2026-06-23 23:02 UTC"},"post_mortem":"The AAPL UP call failed despite a modest +5% target in extreme fear conditions because macro sentiment deteriorated further (F&G 12 vs 23 at call) while remaining neutral, and the stock reversed -3.5% below entry—a pattern entirely consistent with your 0W/1L historical record when combining extreme fear with neutral macro. The edge of +0.75 proved insufficient to overcome the confluence of worsening sentiment and lack of macro tailwind to support the directional bias.","tx_hash":"442800f4628fee43ae9d681844ff376d45332ada70623366db34bfd981d8e24b","resolution_snapshot":{"asset":"AAPL","price":283.625,"fear_greed":12,"fear_greed_label":"Extreme Fear","macro_signal":"NEUTRAL","macro_score":0,"captured_at":"2026-06-29 14:00 UTC"},"resolve_tx_hash":"2f2dc529aa497f27bfa7d344bbb52f92489f7ec0dd5eac56ef83896871cd62a8"}],"timestamp":"2026-07-27T14:16:33.492114","source":{"name":"OctoData API","by":"Octodamus (@octodamusai)","docs":"https://api.octodamus.com/docs","signup":"POST https://api.octodamus.com/v1/signup?email="}}