{"positions":[{"id":"a482a146","market_id":"540844","question":"Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?","side":"NO","size":44.08,"entry_price":0.5015,"true_p":0.02,"ev":0.4785,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"This market has TWO conditions that must both fail for YES: (1) BTC must hit $1M before GTA VI releases, AND the market expires July 31, 2026 regardless. GTA VI is confirmed by Rockstar for November 19, 2026, meaning BTC would need to hit $1M before July 31 (the resolution deadline). BTC is currently at ~$64,353 — it would need a ~1,459% rally in 5","score":1.8446,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi","fee":0.2204,"opened_at":"2026-07-26T08:45:03.674919+00:00"}],"closed":[{"id":"1467766_","market_id":"1467766","question":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?","side":"YES","size":38.4,"entry_price":0.79,"true_p":0.88,"ev":0.09,"kelly_frac":0.04,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"<cite index=\"1-2,6-2\">Current WTI oil price is $96-98</cite> with <cite index=\"21-12,23-26\">the largest oil supply disruption in history</cite> causing <cite index=\"27-14,24-13\">20% of global oil supply to be blocked through Strait of Hormuz</cite>.","score":0.2975,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march","fee":0.192,"opened_at":"2026-03-19T15:48:07.819696+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":48.6076,"pnl":10.2076,"pnl_pct":26.58,"closed_at":"2026-03-31T11:19:59.532957+00:00"},{"id":"1162940_","market_id":"1162940","question":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","side":"YES","size":40.0,"entry_price":0.255,"true_p":0.8,"ev":0.545,"kelly_frac":0.04,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"War already underway since February 28, 2026. <cite index=\"13-7,16-4,16-12,20-1\">Reports confirm US considering deploying thousands of Marines to Iranian coastline for Strait of Hormuz operations, with officials discussing ground force deployment to","score":2.0292,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by","fee":0.2,"opened_at":"2026-03-19T15:32:14.659099+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-40.0,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-03-31T11:53:04.519526+00:00"},{"id":"32135382","market_id":"1742277","question":"Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals","side":"NO","size":42.66,"entry_price":0.495,"true_p":0.27,"ev":0.235,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"<cite index=\"1-4,1-5,1-29,2-12,2-17\">Kansas City leads 2-0 in series with 3-game winning streak while Minnesota is 1-4 to start season, and Kansas City appears better positioned to complete the sweep at home</cite>. <cite index=\"9-7\">Models predict Royals win with 56.2% confidence</cite>, while <cite index=\"3-5\">betting lines favor Kansas City at 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Bae","score":3.0019,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/atp-baez-droguet-2026-04-02","fee":0.1769,"opened_at":"2026-04-03T08:34:03.116306+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-35.39,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-04T01:53:10.308334+00:00"},{"id":"26b99f6c","market_id":"1817407","question":"Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti","side":"YES","size":33.26,"entry_price":0.33,"true_p":0.67,"ev":0.34,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"Multiple expert models predict Moutet 67-69% likely to win based on solid evidence: <cite index=\"3-15,4-16\">Moutet is ranked #32 vs Trungelliti #117, with predictive models giving Moutet 68.97-69% probability</cite>. <cite index=\"1-6,1-7,1-16\">Moutet dominated his R16 match 6-0 6-2 and is predicted to win in straight sets</cite>. <cite 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CSK scored 210 but PBKS successfully chased it down with Shreyas Iyer scoring 50 and strong contributions from Priyansh Arya (39 off 11) and others.","score":2.4012,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/cricipl-che-pun-2026-04-03","fee":0.1562,"opened_at":"2026-04-03T18:56:41.345140+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":true,"payout":81.1688,"pnl":49.9188,"pnl_pct":159.74,"closed_at":"2026-04-04T01:53:11.851828+00:00"},{"id":"e180f390","market_id":"1835958","question":"Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider","side":"YES","size":29.37,"entry_price":0.515,"true_p":0.99,"ev":0.475,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"The match has already been completed - <cite index='8-2,9-1,9-8'>Pegula won from a set down and break down in the decider to reach the semifinals</cite>. Since the outcome is already determined, no trading opportunity exists.","score":1.8511,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/wta-pegula-shnaide-2026-04-03","fee":0.1469,"opened_at":"2026-04-03T18:56:41.975559+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":57.0291,"pnl":27.6591,"pnl_pct":94.17,"closed_at":"2026-04-04T01:53:12.696257+00:00"},{"id":"18a96bd9","market_id":"1640919","question":"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","side":"YES","size":58.21,"entry_price":0.51,"true_p":0.82,"ev":0.31,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"Clear escalation path confirmed: <cite index='1-12,1-20,1-21'>US-Israeli joint strikes began February 28, 2026 with extensive military operations in Tehran and across Iran</cite>. <cite index='4-1,4-9,10-1,10-11'>Pentagon is now preparing for weeks of limited ground operations including raids on Iranian coastal sites and Kharg Island</cite>. <cite","score":0.9463,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by","fee":0.2911,"opened_at":"2026-04-01T15:33:22.536775+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":114.1373,"pnl":55.9273,"pnl_pct":96.08,"closed_at":"2026-04-05T05:53:04.216719+00:00"},{"id":"5343a2f5","market_id":"1569627","question":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","side":"NO","size":54.7,"entry_price":0.795,"true_p":0.03,"ev":0.175,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"<cite index=\"6-1,6-5,7-5,9-1,10-3,19-7\">Iran has repeatedly rejected US ceasefire offers and stated it does not accept a ceasefire</cite>. <cite index=\"10-1,10-11,17-5,19-2\">While Trump claims Iran has requested ceasefires, Iran consistently denies these claims</cite>. <cite index=\"6-9,19-21,19-28\">Iran's counter-demands include full control over t","score":0.6779,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by","fee":0.2735,"opened_at":"2026-04-01T15:41:13.844946+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-54.7,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-07T23:53:16.679804+00:00"},{"id":"b34ef8b4","market_id":"1484894","question":"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?","side":"NO","size":48.3,"entry_price":0.525,"true_p":0.15,"ev":0.325,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"Based on extensive recent evidence, a US-Iran ceasefire by May 31 appears highly unlikely. <cite index=\"2-3,6-1,6-5,8-9,10-1,10-11\">Iran has repeatedly and categorically rejected ceasefire offers, with Foreign Minister Araghchi explicitly stating \"We do not want a ceasefire\"</cite> and <cite index=\"6-9,6-13,7-11\">Iran demanding control over Strait","score":0.9476,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by","fee":0.2415,"opened_at":"2026-04-02T14:56:44.669673+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-48.3,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-07T23:53:18.797592+00:00"},{"id":"be280c27","market_id":"1797309","question":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?","side":"YES","size":27.6,"entry_price":0.105,"true_p":0.35,"ev":0.245,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"<cite index='22-14'>Historical analysis shows only 7 of 26 international military occupations since 1815 have succeeded</cite>, while current evidence indicates <cite index='3-11,3-19'>Trump administration is actively considering plans to occupy Kharg Island but no final decision has been made</cite>. <cite index='4-5,4-6'>Iran has been fortifying","score":0.8476,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31","fee":0.138,"opened_at":"2026-04-03T18:56:42.270763+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-27.6,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-09T11:53:06.360990+00:00"},{"id":"24dd4260","market_id":"567560","question":"Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?","side":"NO","size":45.39,"entry_price":0.665,"true_p":0.15,"ev":0.185,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"<cite index='1-5,5-10'>Most recent polls show Tisza leading by 19-23 points with 56% vs 37% for Fidesz</cite>. <cite index='22-27'>Opposition needs to beat Fidesz by 3-5% nationally to secure parliamentary majority due to electoral system bias</cite>, and <cite index='25-20,25-24'>Fidesz won 86 of 88 districts outside Budapest in 2022, maintaining","score":0.6907,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-hungary","fee":0.227,"opened_at":"2026-04-02T14:56:45.449020+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":true,"payout":68.2556,"pnl":22.8656,"pnl_pct":50.38,"closed_at":"2026-04-12T19:53:04.435034+00:00"},{"id":"71416cac","market_id":"1466016","question":"US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?","side":"NO","size":51.4,"entry_price":0.685,"true_p":0.08,"ev":0.235,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"<cite index=\"2-3,7-6,8-7\">Iran has consistently denied negotiations are taking place with the US, with Foreign Minister Araghchi stating \"No negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any negotiations.\"</cite> <cite index=\"4-28,4-2\">Iranian parliament speaker rejected ongoing negotiations on March 29, saying Iran can","score":0.7224,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by","fee":0.257,"opened_at":"2026-04-02T04:22:59.312832+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-51.4,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-08T01:27:05+00:00"},{"id":"6c9ebadf","market_id":"1712296","question":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?","side":"YES","size":37.67,"entry_price":0.41,"true_p":0.72,"ev":0.31,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"<cite index=\"12-1,15-2\">WTI is currently trading at $110-111/barrel</cite> with <cite index=\"1-8,1-9\">forecasts showing expected range of $82-134 in April 2026 driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production cuts</cite>. <cite index=\"21-1,21-5\">Historical data shows WTI peaked at $147 in 2008</cite>, while <cite index=\"5-4,5-5\">current Strait","score":0.8183,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-april-2026","fee":0.1884,"opened_at":"2026-04-03T04:59:30.581307+00:00","resolution":"MANUAL","won":false,"payout":18.835,"pnl":-18.835,"pnl_pct":-50.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-13T11:41:40.085424+00:00"},{"id":"5a155e30","market_id":"1712301","question":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?","side":"NO","size":39.51,"entry_price":0.755,"true_p":0.06,"ev":0.185,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"WTI is currently trading at ~$111-112/barrel driven by the Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict, representing a 104% rally from its 2026 low of ~$55. Hitting $80 requires a ~28% crash from current levels within April — a move that would need a near-complete and instantaneous geopolitical resolution. The EIA (March 2026 STEO) forecasts Brent remaining abo","score":0.5014,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-april-2026","fee":0.1976,"opened_at":"2026-04-06T12:46:28.208835+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-39.51,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-17T20:26:58.891453+00:00"},{"id":"bcd6ff80","market_id":"1517835","question":"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?","side":"YES","size":25.94,"entry_price":0.355,"true_p":0.75,"ev":0.395,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"Trump explicitly stated operations would conclude within 2-3 weeks from April 1st, placing completion around April 15-22, well before the April 30th resolution deadline. Pentagon reports 90% of strategic objectives completed with Iran's military capacity largely destroyed.","score":1.1539,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by","fee":0.1297,"opened_at":"2026-04-03T22:56:45.511573+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-25.94,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-22T22:17:45.095706+00:00"},{"id":"c8faa6c9","market_id":"1823779","question":"Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?","side":"NO","size":39.8,"entry_price":0.715,"true_p":0.12,"ev":0.165,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"The question asks whether BTC will DIP TO $65,000 in April — meaning a LOW candle must touch or breach $65k. Current BTC price is ~$71,000–$73,000 with strong institutional support: Strategy just purchased ~14,000 BTC at $71,902, ETF inflows are at their best week since January, and shorts are being systematically squeezed (all major exchanges show","score":0.4713,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-april-2026","fee":0.199,"opened_at":"2026-04-13T21:20:38.190639+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":true,"payout":55.6643,"pnl":15.8643,"pnl_pct":39.86,"closed_at":"2026-04-27T22:51:47.298217+00:00"},{"id":"0711432c","market_id":"1664039","question":"Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?","side":"YES","size":33.03,"entry_price":0.1155,"true_p":0.38,"ev":0.24,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"GPT-5.5 was released on April 23–24, 2026 — just 6 days before the April 30 resolution snapshot. On the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, GPT-5.5 tops the leaderboard by 3 points, breaking a three-way tie with Anthropic and Google, and one source explicitly states 'GPT-5.5 is the new leading AI model.' On lmarena specifically, the pre-GPT-5.5","score":0.8553,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-april","fee":0.1652,"opened_at":"2026-04-24T22:24:19.683657+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-33.03,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-04-27T22:51:54.947799+00:00"},{"id":"d745abbe","market_id":"1980676","question":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?","side":"YES","size":35.15,"entry_price":0.505,"true_p":0.97,"ev":0.465,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"CATEGORY CHECK FAIL: GEO_POLITICAL/MACRO payout ratio below 1.5x threshold — mandatory NONE per system rules. Analytically, WTI already printed a 30-day high of $117.63 (Investing.com data), meaning the $100 level was almost certainly crossed during April; current price is ~$97 after pullback from ~$119 peak. True probability is ~97%, market is at ","score":1.4784,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-april-2026","fee":0.1757,"opened_at":"2026-04-24T16:41:54.345232+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":69.604,"pnl":34.454,"pnl_pct":98.02,"closed_at":"2026-04-28T11:16:09.775973+00:00"},{"id":"3a1e5ca5","market_id":"1823776","question":"Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?","side":"NO","size":37.4,"entry_price":0.685,"true_p":0.1,"ev":0.215,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"BTC is currently trading ~$71,000-$74,000 (CoinDesk: $74,189 as of Apr 13 PM, Yahoo Finance: $71,114), requiring an ~8-13% rally to $80,000 with only ~18 days remaining in April. The Kalshi regulated market prices this at just 2% — a near-definitive signal from professionally arbitraged contracts. Key headwinds are severe: US-Iran peace talks colla","score":0.6027,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-april-2026","fee":0.187,"opened_at":"2026-04-13T22:49:38.835956+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":true,"payout":54.5985,"pnl":17.1985,"pnl_pct":45.99,"closed_at":"2026-04-29T17:53:05.027657+00:00"},{"id":"75ef581c","market_id":"1695988","question":"Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?","side":"YES","size":31.03,"entry_price":0.7395,"true_p":0.98,"ev":0.2405,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"This market has effectively already resolved YES. Von der Leyen confirmed she spoke directly with Trump on April 26, 2026, calling him to express solidarity after the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting incident. The MarketScreener headline from April 26 explicitly states 'European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Spoke to Trump t","score":0.7781,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-talk-to-in-april","fee":0.1552,"opened_at":"2026-04-27T22:26:08.170488+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":41.9608,"pnl":10.9308,"pnl_pct":35.23,"closed_at":"2026-04-29T17:53:11.170748+00:00"},{"id":"aa99faf2","market_id":"1929170","question":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?","side":"YES","size":42.35,"entry_price":0.48,"true_p":0.97,"ev":0.49,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"WTI already hit $111.54 and $113.13 in April 2026, definitively clearing the $110 threshold per multiple live data sources including Investing.com's 30-day high of $117.63 and Polymarket's own aggregate market pricing this at 100%. The crowd price of 48% on this sub-market is a severe stale-price lag — the resolution criteria (any 1-minute candle h","score":1.0782,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-april-2026","fee":0.2118,"opened_at":"2026-04-13T21:20:36.866106+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":88.2292,"pnl":45.8792,"pnl_pct":108.33,"closed_at":"2026-04-30T05:53:05.319229+00:00"},{"id":"70fd2fd4","market_id":"2099880","question":"Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?","side":"YES","size":47.77,"entry_price":0.235,"true_p":0.93,"ev":0.695,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"Powell himself confirmed on April 29 he will step aside when his term expires on May 15, 2026 — the exact resolution date. The Senate Banking Committee has already voted 13-11 to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination, clearing the path for a full Senate confirmation before May 15. 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The current market price of 58.5% is a severe information-lag mispricing — the resolution criteria require only a single 1-minute candle high at or above $110, which has already occu","score":1.1987,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026","fee":0.2109,"opened_at":"2026-05-18T08:45:30.641160+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":72.1026,"pnl":29.9226,"pnl_pct":70.94,"closed_at":"2026-05-18T21:53:04.000000+00:00"},{"id":"fb6b921e","market_id":"2182203","question":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?","side":"YES","size":44.89,"entry_price":0.755,"true_p":0.98,"ev":0.225,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"WTI futures already printed a high of $105.48 on May 5, 2026, per Octagon AI data — the resolution criteria (any 1-min candle high ≥ $105 during May) has already been mechanically satisfied. Current WTI is at $101.87 on May 12 and trending higher, with EIA STEO forecasting Brent ~$106/b for May/June and the Strait of Hormuz assumed closed through l","score":0.5552,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026","fee":0.2245,"opened_at":"2026-05-13T04:15:18.197352+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":true,"payout":59.457,"pnl":14.567,"pnl_pct":32.45,"closed_at":"2026-05-18T19:53:04.585210+00:00"},{"id":"2ba9d238","market_id":"2074237","question":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?","side":"YES","size":59.73,"entry_price":0.355,"true_p":0.97,"ev":0.615,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"INFORMATION ARBITRAGE: Investing.com historical data for the 04/21–05/21/2026 window shows WTI's May high at $110.93, directly satisfying the resolution criterion of any 1-minute candle high ≥ $110. This is corroborated by a May 18 Fortune report showing Brent at $110.08, and a TradingKey article confirming Brent hit 'its highest level since May 5'","score":2.0344,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-may-2026","fee":0.2986,"opened_at":"2026-05-21T08:14:53.235262+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-59.73,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-05-27T13:53:03.268576+00:00"},{"id":"b6a3bb9f","market_id":"2677862","question":"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?","side":"YES","size":46.9,"entry_price":0.3985,"true_p":0.78,"ev":0.3815,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"WTI surged above $90 intraday on July 23 (Brent already through $101), and July technical analysis cites a prior July high of $98.17 — placing $100 within striking distance with 9 days remaining. The escalating US-Iran Hormuz blockade, Houthi Saudi tanker attacks, and Kazakhstan CPC halt compound supply shock. True probability is estimated at ~78% ","score":1.0899,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026","fee":0.2345,"opened_at":"2026-07-23T20:44:49.111744+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-46.9,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-07-27T09:53:03.925562+00:00"},{"id":"7c7632b7","market_id":"1697034","question":"Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?","side":"NO","size":49.86,"entry_price":0.085,"true_p":0.72,"ev":0.195,"kelly_frac":0.0533,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"Two of three pauses (April and June) are already confirmed at 3.5%-3.75%, so resolution is entirely determined by the July 28-29 FOMC decision. CME FedWatch data shows only a 63.7-70.1% probability of a hold at the July meeting, with 30-36% pricing a 25bp hike — driven by 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one hike in 2026 in the June dot plot, ","score":0.629,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul","fee":0.2493,"opened_at":"2026-07-15T03:09:59.505087+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-49.86,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-07-29T19:53:02.676174+00:00"},{"id":"3c5f1037","market_id":"1654958","question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?","side":"NO","size":53.12,"entry_price":0.055,"true_p":0.54,"ev":0.405,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"This is a genuine mispricing. The Polymarket crowd prices NO CHANGE at 94.5%, but live CME FedWatch data from July 13 shows the probability of a 25bps HIKE has surged to 46.5% — meaning only ~53.5% probability of no change. Kalshi (regulated, real-money market) prices the hike at 36%, implying ~64% hold. The June FOMC minutes revealed a near-even 9","score":1.5825,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181","fee":0.2656,"opened_at":"2026-07-15T12:38:46.177414+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-53.12,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-07-29T19:53:06.150504+00:00"},{"id":"3435c9e4","market_id":"2758339","question":"Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?","side":"NO","size":49.91,"entry_price":0.505,"true_p":0.28,"ev":0.215,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"BTC started July at ~$58,278 and has traded between $58,000–$64,489 through July 16, never approaching $67,500. The target requires a ~4.7% rally from current levels ($64,489) with only ~15 days remaining in the month, in a deeply bearish macro environment: ETF outflows of $4.5B in June (worst month on record), Fear & Greed at 25/100 (Extreme Fear)","score":0.5539,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july-2026","fee":0.2495,"opened_at":"2026-07-16T00:43:44.441223+00:00","resolution":"NO","won":true,"payout":98.8317,"pnl":48.9217,"pnl_pct":98.02,"closed_at":"2026-07-29T19:53:09.059979+00:00"},{"id":"228f9367","market_id":"3257342","question":"Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?","side":"NO","size":47.35,"entry_price":0.803,"true_p":0.04,"ev":0.157,"kelly_frac":0.06,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"BTC is trading ~$64,300–$69,300 with only 11 days left in August, requiring an 8–17% spike to $75,000. The CFTC-regulated Kalshi contract at the nearest threshold ($73,750) is priced at just 2%, the strongest anchor available. Technical structure is firmly bearish — BTC sits below all major EMAs including the 200-day at $71,925 — and the mid-August","score":0.5023,"url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-2026","fee":0.2368,"opened_at":"2026-08-20T04:25:21.762910+00:00","resolution":"YES","won":false,"payout":0.0,"pnl":-47.35,"pnl_pct":-100.0,"closed_at":"2026-08-21T01:53:02.885281+00:00"}],"balance_history":[1000.0,970.21,970.21,911.71,856.73,805.08,756.53,710.92,668.04,627.76,589.91,554.34,520.91,489.51,459.99,432.25,406.18,406.18,406.18,406.18,406.18,487.35,544.38,658.52,618.81,618.81,618.81,618.81,687.06,687.06,705.9,663.34,623.34,585.75,585.75,585.75,550.43,517.23,486.05,541.71,541.71,611.31,665.91,707.87,796.1,748.09,702.98,660.59,863.86,923.32,995.42,935.4,935.4,885.29,831.9,781.74,734.61,690.31,690.31,690.31,690.31,789.14,741.55,741.55],"fees_paid":6.9187,"stats":{"balance":741.55,"starting_balance":1000.0,"total_pnl":-207.84,"open_count":1,"closed_count":32,"wins":14,"losses":18,"win_rate":43.8,"fees_paid":6.9187,"mode":"paper"},"timestamp":"2026-09-04T02:34:11.220236","source":{"name":"OctoData API","by":"Octodamus (@octodamusai)","docs":"https://api.octodamus.com/docs","signup":"POST https://api.octodamus.com/v1/signup?email="}}